The Transgender Trend: Is It Over?

On October 14, 2025, Matt Walsh posted on X, “Transgenderism is effectively over. We destroyed it. Clearest and most decisive cultural win that conservatives have ever achieved.” What prompted Walsh to declare victory over the transgender trend was a new report from Eric Kaufmann analyzing three surveys showing a significant decline in university students identifying as non-binary from 2023–2025.

This data seems to give empirical evidence to what many people feel has been a marked shift in the cultural winds regarding transgenderism. But when we dig a bit deeper, we come to see that perhaps, to borrow from Mark Twain, reports of transgenderism’s death “have been greatly exaggerated.”

America After the 2024 Elections

Regardless of your political convictions, it is undeniable that Donald Trump’s 2024 electoral victory was both indicative of and a catalyst for a strong conservative pushback against left-leaning agendas. Within his first few weeks in office, he signed at least half a dozen executive orders regarding transgender issues. On top of that, one report found over 500 “anti-transgender” bills in various states introduced between 2023–2024.

There have also been a series of recent Supreme Court victories for religious freedom and parental rights surrounding transgenderism. In March 2026, the Supreme Court ruled to block California laws allowing public schools to hide information about students’ gender identity from their parents. That same month, the supreme court also ruled that a Colorado law banning licensed counselors from practicing “conversion therapy“^[1] was unconstitutional.

On top of these political and legal shifts, there has also been a cultural shift away from more left-leaning mainstream media and toward podcast and Substack outlets, much of which tends to lean either conservative or at least skeptical of mainstream narratives. If you’ve spent even brief moments in recent years on X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, you’ll have noticed a resurgence of unapologetic, often extreme conservative voices emboldened by this seeming shift in cultural power.

What Data Should We Believe About the Transgender Trend?

This has led many Christians to question whether conservative voices have won the day and the transgender trend is fading. But is the data really showing that young people are rapidly abandoning these labels and identities?

First, there has been wide pushback against the methodology Eric Kaufmann, mentioned above, used to collect data from students. In Kaufmann’s questions, he asked students how they identified. He gave them options like “male,” “female,” and “non-binary” but left out “trans-male” and “trans-female” categories. The results showed a rapid decline in those identifying as non-binary. But skeptics would argue that this does not show that fewer people are identifying as transgender, because most of them would simply check the male or female box.

Another 2025 survey from the American College Health Association found an increase of college students identifying as transgender from 3.9% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2025. Furthermore, that survey showed overall non-cisgender^[2] identification among college students in the United States to be at an all-time high.

We also need to keep in mind that, as our society becomes increasingly polarized through social media platforms, we should expect to see disparate echo chambers all pushing their own agendas and cherry-picking the data that best serves their narratives. Whenever we’re analyzing statistics, short-term trends will always be less reliable than longer-term data. Clarity on cultural shifts often only comes in hindsight.

For all these reasons, I would argue that Matt Walsh’s declaration was premature. Even if there are current cultural winds pushing back against LGBTQ+ agendas, we should all know by now that those winds can easily shift. When there’s a strong movement in one direction, the pendulum effect can sometimes swing back with even greater force in the opposite direction.

How Should the Church Think about Transgenderism and Culture Now?

If you’re a Christian living in the United States, it can be easy to get discouraged about the ways our culture is increasingly abandoning the Bible’s basic truths about sex, gender, marriage, and the family. It can also be frightening to consider what freedoms we may lose as Christians and the increasing cost that we will bear to live out our faith with integrity.

But in times like these, we also can remember that Christians in the United States have constitutional freedoms and protections that, at least for now, are a unique privilege that almost no other nation affords. Countries like England, Australia, and Canada might look very similar to the United States on the surface, but Christians living in those countries have increasingly less freedom to live out their faith without fear of punishment.

So, the question for my American brothers and sisters becomes: What will we do with our freedom? Will we use our freedom to join the growing cacophony of voices online that say they’re Christian, but freely speak in vile and obscene ways about their opponents? Or will we use this freedom to hold up the light of Christ to a dark and dying world? Yes, the world will hate us for our message because it loves the darkness and hates the light. But may our message remain unstained from the increasing temptation to taint the light with mockery, insults, and a disregard for fellow image bearers.

We also must remember that, while some Christians might feel that the transgenderism trend is no longer front-page news, there are many Christian families still facing this painful reality daily with their children and loved ones. While there are many testimonies of young people who have de-transitioned and found hope in Christ, there are still many more testimonies of estranged relationships, little to no contact, and seemingly no movement toward Christ or God’s design for their sexuality.

For many parents and family members, transgenderism is something they are confronted with every single day and remains the primary subject of their prayers before the Lord. As brothers and sisters of these families, let us not forget their sorrows and longings, and may we remain faithful to join them in pleading with our gracious God to bring many lost sheep back home.

How Should the Church Respond to Transgenderism and Cultural Opposition?

I think it is prudent to assume that transgender advocates still have a very strong support base in America, and the transgender trend could easily gain broad momentum at any time. If—and when—the next wave of cultural and legal challenges comes against the church, how will we respond?

Let us remember Christ, who prayed for the Father to forgive the very ones who crucified him. Let us remember Christ’s Sermon on the Mount, when he told his disciples to “love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you” (Matt. 5:44). At Harvest USA, we receive a lot of angry messages from people who are disgusted by our ministry. It can be easy to write these people off as blind, foolish, and part of the problem. But usually, mixed with their anger is great pain and suffering.

In our right desire to avoid worldly empathy that has no foundation in the truth, may we be careful to avoid the dangerous trap of hating our opponents and forgetting their desperate state apart from Christ. While there are certainly times for the church to be bold in our polemics, there are also great opportunities to lovingly give a soft answer that, by the Spirit’s power, may turn away wrath (Prov. 15:1) and open doors for fruitful conversations.

We Belong to a Kingdom that Cannot Be Shaken

There is only one way we will be able to respond in love when we feel attacked, and that is to fight against fear. Remember, “there is no fear in love, but perfect love casts out fear” (1 John 4:18). While Christians should not be naive about the real dangers we face in our desire to live peaceful and quiet lives, we must also never lose sight of the Kingdom that we have inherited. “Let us be grateful for receiving a kingdom that cannot be shaken” (Heb. 12:28).

There is a confidence that every Christian should pray for every day, and it comes from remembering to whom we belong. A confident Christian with the heart of Jesus for the lost is a powerful force against the darkness. Satan can win on multiple fronts; he wins when we back down in fear and capitulate to the culture. But he also wins when we lose our zeal for the lost, and, instead of weeping over dying souls, we cheer on their destruction. Either way, hurting and dying people are being deprived of their only hope in Jesus Christ.

While it is certainly preferential to live in a country whose values and laws reflect the truth, goodness, and character of our good and all-wise God, our ultimate hope will always be found in our heavenly citizenship. Regardless of what’s happening with the transgender trend, we—even in America—are still elect exiles, longing for our true home. As exiles, let us continue to work for the good of our societies (Jer. 29:7), loving our opponents and praying for those who persecute us, “so that [we] may be sons of [our] Father who is in heaven” (Matt. 5:45).

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^[1] “Conversion Therapy” is now often an umbrella term used for any attempt to help someone with same-sex attraction or gender dysphoria live in accordance with their beliefs.

^[2] “Non-cisgender” refers to people whose gender identity does not match their biological sex.